Quarterly Market Insights
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Markets rose in the second quarter as investors witnessed the new U.S. trade policy's impacts unfold, while tensions continued in the Middle East. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 10.57 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 17.75 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 4.98 percent.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Yahoo Finance, June 30, 2025. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What Investors May Be Talking About in July
The White House's trade policy began in earnest on April 2, right at the start of the second quarter. It’s unclear how upcoming reports might reflect trade policy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics scheduled its import and export report mid-month, expecting to provide some early insights into trade policy.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will give investors its first glimpse at second-quarter economic activity at the end of the month. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model, which provides a running estimate based on available economic data, has been trending higher since April.14
World Markets
The MSCI EAFE Index rose 10.58 percent over the quarter, its second consecutive winning quarter.15
Almost every European market advanced over the quarter, with Spain (+6.52 percent) and Germany (+7.88 percent) leading the major developed European economies. Italy (+2.54 percent), the United Kingdom (+1.50 percent), and France (-1.60 percent) trailed the Index.16
Pacific Rim markets also did quite well. Korea (+23.80 percent) stood out clearly, and Japan (+13.67 percent) also beat the overall Index. Australia (+8.91 percent) also performed well, while Hong Kong (+4.12 percent) delivered more modest returns.16
| World Market Recap | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging Markets | June 2025 (%) | Q2 2025 (%) | Year-to-Date (%) |
| Hang Seng (China) | |||
| KOSPI (Korea) | |||
| Nikkei (Japan) | |||
| Sensex (India) | |||
| EGX 30 (Egypt) | |||
| Bovespa (Brazil) | |||
| IPC All-Share (Mexico) | |||
| ASX 200 (Australia) | |||
| Europe | |||
| DAX (Germany) | |||
| CAC 40 (France) | |||
| IBEX 35 (Spain) | |||
| FTSE 100 (United Kingdom) | |||
| IT40 (Italy) | |||
| Yahoo Finance, June 30, 2025. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. | |||
Indicators
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The economy contracted at an annualized 0.5 percent rate in the first quarter of 2025. The economy grew by 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. The first decline in GDP since 2022 was caused mainly by a surge of imports ahead of tariffs taking effect, which drove up the trade deficit.17
Employment
Employers added 139,000 jobs in May, more than the 125,000 jobs economists expected, fewer than the 147,000 new jobs in April and the 185,000 added in March, revised downward by a combined 95,000 jobs.18
Retail Sales
Consumer spending fell 0.9 percent in May over the prior month, missing expectations of a 0.6 percent decline.19
Industrial Production
Industrial output fell by 0.2 percent in May, missing market expectations of a 0.1 percent increase and following April’s 0.1 percent rise.20
Housing
Housing starts dropped 9.8 percent in May over the prior month to a five-year low, as homebuilders anticipated weaker sales. Year over year, new home construction fell 4.6 percent.21
Sales of existing homes rose 0.8 percent in May over the prior month, compared with April’s 0.5 percent month-over-month decline. The median existing home sales price was $422,800, a 1.3 percent increase year over year.22
New home sales fell 13.7 percent in May. Year over year, new home sales fell by 6.3 percent. The market had 507,000 unsold new homes in May, equal to 9.8 months of supply at the latest sales pace.23
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in May over the prior month, less than expected and slightly lower than April’s 0.2 percent rise. Year over year, prices rose 2.4 percent, aligning with expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1 percent month over month and 2.8 percent year over year, less than expected in both cases.24
Durable Goods Orders
Orders of manufactured goods designed to last three years or longer surged 16.4 percent in May, far exceeding expectations for an 8.5 percent rise.25
The Fed
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held rates steady at its June meeting. Fed Chair Powell said policymakers are “well positioned to wait” before moving on short-term rates. He added that while the labor market is in balance, the Committee expects “a meaningful amount of inflation in the coming months…. We have to take that into account.” When testifying before Congress on June 24, Powell stayed on point with essentially the same message despite pressure from the White House to cut rates. Policymakers still have penciled in two rate cuts between now and year-end.26,27
The FOMC scheduled the next meeting for July 29-30.
By the Numbers: Ice Cream
$11.4 Billion28
The total positive impact of the ice cream industry on the U.S. economy.
27,10028
The number of jobs directly created by the ice cream industry.
50+ Years28
How long the majority of ice cream and frozen dessert producers have been in business.
$1.9 Billion28
The total dollar amount of direct wages created by the ice cream industry.
1.31 Billion lbs28
The total amount of ice cream produced in the U.S. last year.
38%28
The share of Americans who say vanilla is their favorite flavor.
35%28
The percentage of Americans who say hot fudge is their favorite overall topping.
31%28
The proportion who say brownies are their favorite confectionery topping.
17%28
Those who say pecans are their favorite nut topping.
27%28
The share who say strawberries are their favorite fruit topping.
70%28
The proportion of Americans who love ice cream (27 percent merely like it).
4 Gallons28
The average amount of ice cream an American eats every year.
73%28
The proportion of Americans who eat ice cream at least once a week.
9%28
The share of Americans who like to eat ice cream straight from the carton.
63%28
The share of Americans who like to start with the ice cream first while…
4%28
...eat their ice cream cones first.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite, LLC, is not affiliated with the named representative, broker-dealer, or state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Investing involves risks, and decisions should be based on your goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Any companies mentioned are for illustrative purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, timeframe, and risk tolerance. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, subject to revision without notice, and may not materialize. The market indexes discussed are unmanaged and generally considered representative of their respective markets. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and considered a broad indicator of the performance of stocks of technology and growth companies. The Russell 1000 Index is an index that measures the performance of the highest-ranking 1,000 stocks in the Russell 3000 Index, which is comprised of 3,000 of the largest U.S. stocks. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark for the performance in major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index. The return and principal value of stock prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility. The Hang Seng Index is a benchmark index for the blue-chip stocks traded on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The KOSPI is an index of all stocks traded on the Korean Stock Exchange. The Nikkei 225 is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange. The SENSEX is a stock market index of 30 companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. The Jakarta Composite Index is an index of all stocks that are traded on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The Bovespa Index tracks 50 stocks traded on the Sao Paulo Stock, Mercantile, & Futures Exchange. The IPC Index measures the companies listed on the Mexican Stock Exchange. The MERVAL tracks the performance of large companies based in Argentina. The ASX 200 Index is an index of stocks listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. The DAX is a market index consisting of the 30 German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. The CAC 40 is a benchmark for the 40 most significant companies on the French Stock Market Exchange. The Dow Jones Russia Index measures the performance of leading Russian Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) that trade on the London Stock Exchange. The FTSE 100 Index is an index of the 100 companies with the highest market capitalization listed on the London Stock Exchange. Please consult your financial professional for additional information. Copyright 2025 FMG Suite. |
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